Full disclosure, Nation, who made 105 appearances for the Black Sticks between 2004 and 2010, is on the selection panel so he is partly responsible for what he describes as "a really good mix".
New Zealand have won just one hockey medal at the Olympics - a surprise gold in 1976 at the Montreal Games.
The Sport Otago chief executive knows just how tough it is. He competed at Athens in 2004 and Beijing four years later.
"I think they are the dark horses and I say that for a number of reasons," Nation said.
"We’ve finally got our best players out there and they have had a good amount of time together.
"And they are a really good mix of experience.
"You’ve got Kane Russell, who is one of the top drag-flickers in the world, and, if he is on song, then that will certainly help the team.
"Hugo Inglis is a weapon up front. He is world class and other teams take notice of that.
"You’ve got Simon Child in behind him who is a striker as well, and then you got Blair Tarrant at the back who will lead the defence and he is uncompromising ... and just marshals the troops back there exceptionally well.
"Then you throw in some young players like Sean Findlay, Charlie Morrison, Simon Yorston and you’ve got a really well-balanced team."
Inglis, Tarrant and Russell grew up playing hockey together in Dunedin.
Inglis is at his fourth Olympics and Tarrant and Russell are at their third.
They are key members of the squad, while a fourth Otago athlete, Malachi Buschl, is also with the team. He was named as a travelling reserve.
The Black Sticks had not been playing the top teams in the lead-up to the Olympics, which had pros and cons, Nation said.
"They weren’t playing Pro League this year so they haven’t being playing the top teams, which is a bit of an issue. But those top teams haven’t been playing them [New Zealand] and I think that is what will make them nervous because they just haven’t got real experience playing against us.
"There is video footage and all that but you can’t beat actual playing."
There were no easy games at the Olympics but some matches looked more winnable than others, Nation said.
They need to finish in the top four in group B to progress through to the quarterfinals.
Their opening game against India, in the early hours of tomorrow morning New Zealand time, shapes as crucial. And the final round-robin game against Ireland on August 3 is another match the Black Sticks will be targeting for a win.
And any points they can pick up against Belgium, Argentina and Australia will improve their prospects.
"But it’s the Olympics - it’s so tough."
Black Sticks
Olympic draw
July 28: v India, 3.30am (NZ time)
July 29: v Belgium, 3.30am
July 31: v Argentina, 3am
August 1: v Australia, 8.30pm
August 3: v Ireland, 3am
