Global Insight: Kursk attack shows Putin 'not as strong'

Ukraine's counter-invasion of Russia could cause an attempted overthrow of Vladimir Putin, Prof Robert Patman predicts.

The University of Otago international relations specialist said last week’s surprise assault by Ukraine’s military on Russia’s Kursk region had shown the world, and perhaps more importantly, Russians, that Putin’s Russia was not as strong as some thought.

‘‘It has demonstrated the so-called ‘strongman regime’ of Russia is not so strong after all. It couldn't even defend its internationally recognised border separating Kursk from Ukraine,’’ Mr Patman told Otago Daily Times’ Global Insight.

‘‘So this is going to cause real political problems for Mr Putin, and he could well face a political challenge in the not-too-distant future.’’

The ongoing counter-invasion, which showed no signs of slowing, had captured up to 1000sq km of Russian territory and allowed Ukraine to seize the initiative in the two-and-a-half-year-old war.

‘‘It has really changed the narrative concerning the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.’’

Prof Patman also spoke about why Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky considered the counter-invasion worth the gamble, why Russia was slow to respond to the assault and the likely impact on Ukraine’s Western allies.

bruce.munro@odt.co.nz