Southern candidates’ struggles

It has not been a good few days for parties other than Labour hoping to elect MPs from the southern region to Parliament.

The Green Party — which once had a co-leader and then a backbencher dwelling in Dunedin — released its preliminary ranking list, which did not contain good news for its thus-far declared 2023 candidates.

Dunedin candidate Francisco Hernandez has been slotted in at 17, one ahead of once and future Taieri candidate Scott Willis at 18. And 2020 Southland candidate Dave Kennedy is at 25, two-time Invercargill candidate Rochelle Francis is at 27 and Dunedin-raised Neelu Jennings is at 30.

There had been some speculation Dunedin’s former mayor, the Green-backed Aaron Hawkins, might be a list candidate but he has seemingly opted to sit this one out.

Five southern-connected candidates would bode well should this be Labour or National’s list, but there would need to be a wind of cyclonic force behind the Greens for any of the above-mentioned candidates — worthy though they no doubt are — to be elected to Parliament on October 14.

Those rankings might change once members get their chance to vote on them — and given the current volatility in the party anything might happen — but it seems unlikely any of the locals will soar up the rankings.

All of which might lead to some grumbling by the southern branches of the Greens that their reliably solid contribution towards the race for the MMP 5% threshold might be being taken for granted.

As has been traversed by Southern Say before, Dunedin North as it was — Dunedin now — is one of the most important seats for the Greens. Although they are not going to win it, Dunedin can be depended on by the Greens to figure somewhere in its top five for party votes cast, mainly thanks to the energetic party presence on campus.

In 2020 its Dunedin candidate Jack Brazil — who Southern Say wishes a swift recovery — delivered the Green’s fourth highest total of party votes per electorate.

Subsequently the local membership requested more visits by party MPs and greater consideration of a high list ranking for a local candidate in recognition of its importance to the cause.

Those requests took on greater significance after Mr Hawkins’ defeat at the local body elections last year. While not a Parliamentary politician, Mr Hawkins’ prominence as mayor meant the party regarded him and re-elected Green councillor Marie Laufiso as their southern standard bearers.

To be fair, the Green hierarchy has responded to request one: its MPs are often seen down here and an invitation for a local speaking appearance is seldom declined.

But request two seems to have been sacrificed to the various factional battles which all too often divide the Greens. Trying to keep a balance between the pragmatism of James Shaw, the activism of his fellow co-leader, Marama Davidson, and the many other stripes represented in the Green flag must be a caucus management nightmare, and it cannot be helped by the well-known attempts to topple Mr Shaw and the recently discovered rancour between Elizabeth Kerekere and Chloe Swarbrick.

Mr Shaw and Ms Davidson have opted to go list only this election, notionally to free up their time to campaign across the country.

In reality, that likely means to largely campaign in Auckland and Wellington. Quite apart from a win in either "central" seat guaranteeing a Green presence in Parliament until 2026, the prestige of Ms Swarbrick holding Auckland Central would be huge and a surprise win in Wellington Central by Tamatha Paul would be historic.

But to capitalise on any gains in the north, the Greens will need its solid south to elect MPs deep on its list. Its best efforts probably won’t reach to 17 or 18 though, and the likely lack of local representation is something which southern greens may not wish to tolerate for much longer.

Elsewhere, National has been wrestling with the blink-and-you-would-have-missed-it candidacy of Stephen Jack for the seat of Taieri.

Given the size of the rural area of Taieri increased markedly after the latest boundary redrawing, on paper picking a Balclutha farmer seemed a smart move.

However, it has proven to be a misstep of catastrophic proportions, which has once more cast the soundness of National’s political management into doubt.

Improvements were promised after the Sam Uffindell debacle, when revelation after discouraging revelation emerged of his schoolboy antics and conduct while a student at Otago.

However, even the most simple of vetting processes seem not to have been carried out in the case of Mr Jack.

The first thing every employer does when a new CV lands on their desk is they have a look at the candidate’s social media profile. It is not determinative as to whether or not they will get an interview, let alone the position, but it is a simple first step to assess someone’s character and whether they will assimilate easily into the workplace culture.

It took media scanning Mr Jack’s postings little time to find an off-colour joke, the apology for which might have been enough for it to be regarded as a one-off.

At this point a bright flashing light should have gone off for someone in National HQ to check what other "jokes" or opinions Mr Jack might have been sharing with the world, but seemingly not.

The party was blindsided again on Wednesday when it was discovered that he had reposted a tawdry verse composed by fellow southern farmer Ross Agnew which compared former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to Adolf Hitler.

This type of slur is all too common in fringe political circles but has no place in mainstream politics. National’s leadership — understandably — ran a mile and could not jettison Mr Jack quickly enough. The only "good" thing about this sorry episode is that Mr Jack resigned immediately.

Incumbent Taieri MP, Labour’s Ingrid Leary, was already having a good week, having been elected chairwoman of the finance and expenditure select committee. This was the icing on the cake, as Mr Jack’s risible political career has probably blown out the candles on any hope National had of causing an upset on the plains.

mike.houlahan@odt.co.nz